The Data that Motivates Us to Build UP

The Data That Drives BUF

And we know, it's a lot, but honestly, it's a tiny drop in the ocean of the data.

· 💵 $91,289/year– average cost per person in SF County Jail (2019). (1)

· 💵 $16,436 per felony arrest – estimated cost for local jail incarceration in San Francisco. (2)

· 💰 $21,896 per felony arrest – estimated cost to SF taxpayers for state imprisonment. (3)

· 🚨 70%– youth exiting foster care are arrested at least once by age 26. (4)

· 🔁 74.3%– SF 18–19-year-olds with incarceration histories return to prison within 3 years. (5)

· 📉 85–89%– of the formerly incarcerated who are re-arrested are unemployed. (6)

· 💼 $6,250– median annual income pre-incarceration; only 49% of incarcerated men had jobs. (7)

· 🌁 $90,285– per capita income in San Francisco (2023). (8)

· ⚫ <6% vs. ~50% – Black residents are <6% of SF’s population but nearly half of the jail population. (9)

· 👦 $625,000–$850,000/year– cost of locking up one youth in San Francisco. (10)

· 📈 ~$2 million/year – at very low occupancy, per‑youth costs are among the highest in the nation. (11)

· 🧭 5 Paths Only – While incarcerated, the smart, funny, caring young man who inspired BUF said he believed his future held only five options: 'rap star, athlete, drug fiend, incarcerated, or dead.' What was profound was his awareness that there might be another path — but without support, he could not yet see how to make it real. BUF exists to help turn that awareness into agency and opportunity. (12)

· ✨ BUF = 6th Path – Personal trainer, mentor, and community leader. (13)

· 🕰️ 1500s (England) – foster care roots in England’s Poor Laws; children without families were placed as indentured servants, often exploited. (14)

· 📜 1600s–1700s (Colonial America) – children without parents, or deemed 'unfit,' were bound out as indentured servants until adulthood. The first recorded foster child was Benjamin Eaton (1636) in Jamestown, Virginia. (15)

· 🚂 1853 (Orphan Trains) – Charles Loring Brace founded the Children’s Aid Society; ~200,000 children sent west to families, often for labor. (16)

· 🏛️ 1935 (Social Security Act) – formalized foster care with federal child welfare funding; foundation of modern foster care. (17)

· 👩‍👩‍👧 $4,200/year – average families (mostly women) spend on calls, visits, commissary & care. (18)

· 🏚️ Neighborhood destabilization – high‑incarceration areas face more displacement, homelessness, and instability. (19)

· 📚 Education setbacks – children of incarcerated parents miss school more often and graduate less. (20)

· 🔒 Recidivism paradox – stable employment cuts re‑offense in half, but unemployment is the norm post‑incarceration. (21)

· ❤️ Higher health costs – families of the incarcerated face more anxiety, depression, and chronic stress, raising citywide healthcare costs. (22)

· ♀ Hidden tax on women – women shoulder bail, commissary, hygiene, childcare, visitation, and reentry costs that drain household resources. (23)

· 🧠 Ages 18–26 – brain science confirms the prefrontal cortex (judgment & planning) does not fully mature until mid‑20s. (24)

· ⚡ Trauma + poverty – poverty and system involvement magnify risks; incarceration deepens harm. (25)

· 👶 ~17–18%– of state prisoners spent time in foster care before age 18. (26) 

- If a child has moved through five or more placements, they face a 90% risk of involvement with the criminal legal system (26.5)

· 🚪 Opportunity gap    Nearly half of incarcerated people grew up in the lowest-income households; boys raised in the bottom 10% are about 20× more likely to be incarcerated by early adulthood than those raised in the top 10%. (27)

· 🧠 30% fewer symptoms – exercise reduces anxiety and depression. (28)

· 📅 Daily structure – fitness builds discipline and routines transferable to jobs. (29)

· 💪 Strength + endurance – better health, fewer chronic disease risks. (30)

· ✨ Confidence growth – fitness gains build self‑belief and hope. (31)

· 🔥 Stress relief – movement provides a healthy outlet for trauma and frustration. (32)

· 🤝 Community bonds – group training fosters mentorship and belonging. (33)

· 🔑 Up to 50% recidivism reduction – fitness tied to employment & mentoring cuts re‑offense. (34)

TOTAL SAVINGS to San Francisco 

PER BUF Apprentice

estimate based on latest available data, 2019, including arrest and court expenses

10 Apprentices would bring a savings of $1,100,00.00  to our city in direct financial costs alone.

If just one apprentice impacts one young person and shows them that there are other options, that is a potential savings of $625,000–$850,000 per year in Juvenile detention.

What BUF can do with $112,000

This is a 6-month launch budget. Every dollar is working.

→ Funds a full 6-month soft launch — outdoor sessions, gym scouting, and the first cohort earning wages from Day 1.

→ $25,000 Apprenticeship Fund = paid training wages at $25/hr, 15 hrs/week for the first cohort.

→ Each apprentice earns ~$9,750 over 6 months — real income, real résumé, real start.

→ Annualized, that’s ~$19,500 — and with a second part-time job, apprentices can reach $35–40K, moving toward SF’s $52K living wage.

→ Includes a Lead Coach salary ($35,000), curriculum build ($20,000), equipment and build-out ($10,000), and the infrastructure to make it real.

Apprentices impact their entire family and community by accepting an invitation to participate in their own lives — and creating visible proof that another path exists.

Creates viable pathways to assist young adults ages 18–26 toward living-wage earnings in one of the nation’s most expensive cities — while modeling success for younger peers and building social capital citywide.

Sources

1. City and County of San Francisco (2019) – Controller’s Office: Jail Population Data & Costs. https://sfgov.org/controller

2. Legislative Analyst’s Office (CA, 2020) – How much does it cost to incarcerate an inmate?
https://lao.ca.gov

3. Public Policy Institute of California – California’s Prison Population.
https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-prison-population/

4. Vera Institute of Justice – The Price of Prisons (2021 update).
https://www.vera.org/reports/price-of-prisons-2021

5. SF Budget & Legislative Analyst Report – Cost of Incarceration and Alternatives in San Francisco.
https://sfbos.org/sites/default/files/FileCenter/Documents/45244-BLA.IncarcerationCosts.pdf

6. National Institute of Corrections – Costs of Local Incarceration.
https://nicic.gov/costs-local-incarceration

7. Annie E. Casey Foundation – Youth Justice by the Numbers (2023).
https://www.aecf.org/resources/youth-justice-by-the-numbers-2023

8. Juvenile Law Center – Collateral Consequences of Juvenile Records.
https://jlc.org/resources/collateral-consequences-juvenile-records

9. Children’s Bureau / HHS – Foster Care Statistics FY2022.
https://www.acf.hhs.gov/cb/report/afcars-report-29

10. Chapin Hall / University of Chicago – Midwest Evaluation of the Adult Functioning of Former Foster Youth.
https://www.chapinhall.org/research/midwest-evaluation/

11. Casey Family Programs – Improving Outcomes for Youth Transitioning from Foster Care.
https://www.casey.org/transition-age-youth/

12. Sentencing Project – Mass Incarceration: The Whole Pie 2024.
https://www.sentencingproject.org/reports/mass-incarceration-the-whole-pie-2024/

13. Prison Policy Initiative – The Racial Geography of Mass Incarceration.
https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/racialgeography.html

14. Harvard Kennedy School – The Civic Costs of Incarceration.
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/criminaljustice/research-publications/civic-costs-incarceration

15. Brookings Institution – Economic and Family Impacts of Incarceration.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/economic-and-family-impacts-of-incarceration/

16. RAND Corporation – Employment Barriers After Incarceration.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_rephttps://websites.godaddy.com/the-data-that-drives-usorts/RRA1088-1.html

17. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) – Benefits of Physical Activity for Adults.
https://www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/basics/pa-health/index.htm

18. National Institutes of Health (NIH) – Exercise and Mental Health.
https://newsinhealth.nih.gov/2017/06/boost-your-mood-brain

19. American Psychological Association – Exercise as a Treatment for Depression.
https://www.apa.org/topics/exercise-fitness/stress

20. World Health Organization – Global Strategy on Physical Activity.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/physical-activity

21. Eime, R. M., et al. (2013). Psychological and Social Benefits of Sport Participation in Youth.
https://ijbnpa.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1479-5868-10-98

22. InnerCity Weightlifting (ICW) – Impact Evaluation Summary.
https://www.innercityweightlifting.org/impact

23. ConBody – Social Impact & Recidivism Reduction Data.
https://www.conbody.com/pages/about

24. The Last Mile – Workforce Development Outcomes.
https://thelastmile.org/impact/

25. Homeboy Industries – Annual Impact Report.
https://homeboyindustries.org/impact/

26. Roca, Inc. – Transitional Employment and Recidivism Results.
https://rocainc.org/results/

26.5 . https://www.crimlawpractitioner.org/post/the-foster-care-to-prison-pipeline-a-road-to-incarceration

27.  Brookings Institution analysis of Opportunity Insights / Chetty et al
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/es_20180314_looneyincarceration_final.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

28. Anxiety & Depression Association of America (ADAA) – Exercise for Stress and Anxiety. https://adaa.org/living-with-anxiety/managing-anxiety/exercise-stress-and-anxiety

29. HelpGuide – How to Start Exercising and Stick to It. https://www.helpguide.org/wellness/fitness/how-to-start-exercising-and-stick-to-it

30. Anderson & Shivakumar (2013) – Effects of Exercise and Physical Activity on Anxiety. Frontiers in Psychiatry / PMC. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3632802/

31. Tikac et al. (2022) – Regular Exercise Improves Self-Efficacy, Self-Esteem and Body Awareness in Young Adults. Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33555673/

32. Crombie et al. (2022) – The Impact of Aerobic Exercise on Mood Symptoms in Trauma-Exposed Young Adults. PMC. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9176406/

33. Stevens et al. (2019) – Perceptions of Groupness During Fitness Classes Positively Predict Belonging and Enjoyment. Sport, Exercise & Performance Psychology / PMC. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6756792/

34. Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics (2019) – Successful Reentry: A Community-Level Analysis. (Cites Arches Transformative Mentoring Program: 50%+ reduction in felony reconviction; InnerChange mentoring program: 52% decrease in reconviction.) https://iop.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/2023-02/IOP_Policy_Program_2019_Reentry_Policy.pdf